Shots On Goal

In football betting, goal expectation remains a very vital topic. This articles aims at helping you understand data related to shots on goal. In the end it becomes clearer if some teams are riding on luck or whether their goal expectation matches their winning potential.

location of Shot

Now it is only logical that the chances of a shot to result in a goal increases as distance for the ball to travel reduces. In the same vain, headers are not as productive as shots even when taken from same distance.
A soccer pitch is divided into zones to represent data for the conversion rates of shots and headers alike, this helps in narrowing down the calculations involved in goal expectation.

For example,

Statistics show that almost half of the shots taken from within the 6 yard box have produced goals. While just around one tenth of shots from outside the same area have been converted.
Over the years, we have seen the use of formal approaches to ascertain the probability of a match producing goals or not. The location of each shot and their coordinates represent independent variables. While the dependent variables are the actual results of attempts on goal. Thus giving rise to an equation which can help predict the possibility of a goal coming from different parts of the pitch.
Furthermore, this strategy can help determine the probability of an attempt going off target or being on target.

The only downside to this would be the need to constantly have massive data to create an effective system.

Simulating Match Events.

Due to the now spreading information on goal expectation. Individual attempts now create avenues for match results to be recreated using likely results of actual games.
It is general knowledge that the conversion rate of penalties is a little above 75%. Checking with data available a penalty can be considered successful if it falls anywhere between 0.75 and 0. In goal expectation, the higher the value, the higher the probability of getting a number that falls within the success margin. Most bettors call this a virtual goal.

Punters apply this process to a large number of games with inclusion of possible scorelines. It can help answer questions on shots blocked/ conceeded by winners of some matches as to of they did merit the win.

Let’s say

Team A versus Team B
With total shots on goal 12-4, team A wins the game by a scoreline of 3-1. In this case the statistics relating to goal expectation are clearly visible from shots on goal.

Summary

Goal expectation based on shots on goal helps tell the tale of match result. In some cases the scoreline doesnot portray the true nature of the game. It also points out who had luck on their side and who did not.
That is to say even if a team has more shots on target, this final score line reflects it too. As this has no effect on the opposing team taking their chances as they come.
Using this method, punters have been able to identify underated teams and valued bet markets alike. In the long run access to such information would be the differentiating factor between a successful bet and otherwise.