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FACTORS CONSIDERED IN FOOTBALL BETTING SELECTION

Filed in BETTING ADVICE by on 3 months ago 0 Comments

One of the most popular spectators’ sports in the world is football. Everywhere you go people are either watching or discussing football. As such, people try to make money by predicting the outcomes of the games in play or future games. Sports’ betting on the internet is becoming increasingly prevalent especially in western countries such as Canada, New Zealand and Australia. Over the last decade, sports’ betting has almost doubled in popularity. Sports betting in Australia generated an estimated revenue of $600 million up from $264 million in 2006. As such, statistical models to do game predictions have increased in number.

In 1982 Maher made one of the first the analyzed the model of predicting results in football matches. In his model, he assumed that attack-strength indicated that the team scored many goals while that with defense-strength indicates that a team concedes only a few goals. Maher assumed that a home advantage is the same for all teams. Though Maher found maximum likelihood estimators for the limits in his model, there were two fundamental objections raised against his model. After an investigation into the results of league cup between 1992 and 1995, Dixon and Coles proposed an extension to Maher model. They proposed a time-dependent model. Later, Rue and Salvesen included the random walk model that helped to find “strength of memory” and estimated from the data.in this case, Maher looked at the team that scores many goals has a likely hood of winning games as compared to those teams that score lesser goals.

Looking at the team’s history has been one of the most used models for predicting the possible outcome of the game in hand. If a team obtains results that are good, the team is likely to win in the future game. On the other hand, if a team does not show good results it is likely when it meets with a team with a continuous winning streak it will lose. Additionally, it is important to look at their earlier meetings. As such, the most analysis states that if these teams have met before and one of them has won more games against each other compared to the other, it is likely that the team with more winnings will continue its trend of winning against its opponent.

In football prediction, team positioning in the league table is an important factor to consider. A team placed on the top half of the table has the highest probability of winning a match against the team ranked in the second half of the table. As such, it is always advisable to consider the teams ranking. Finally, one has to consider the team’s injuries. When most influential players in a team get injured there is a likely hood of them losing against their opponents that have no injuries in their team as the team sometimes get demoralized and lack fluency in the gameplay.

With all these factors, football fans are in a good position to foretell the results of the future game.

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