Factors to consider when predicting football matches

Just as stated in our previous post, there are certain factors to consider as a beginner who wants to start predicting football matches.

1. Consider the Variables

This aspect has to do with the kind of data readily accessible to be used. Data that helps assess a team’s strength, weakness, potential and general performance.

In relation to data, some of the most used include;

• Possession
• shots on/off Target
• Shots on goal
• Goal differential
• Location of shots taken

Any data to be used need to;

1. accurately assess teams performance
2. be readily available

When considering whether or not a data will help us assess a team’s performance with accuracy, they are key things we should look out for.

Will this data be able to provide a level of accuracy when assessing the number of goal a team would most likely score? Or even the number they just might concede. It is also referred to as Goal Expectancy.

As you read on this topic would become much clearer. We will also throw light on Poisson distribution. As that is another means to ascertain the probabilities of a football match with goal expectancy in retrospect.

2. Size of Data

This remains a key aspect of assessment. As any data to consider should constantly provide a trail of value bets. This is what really matters.

When referring to size of data to use in attaining a team’s true potential, we are saying how much data is required for accuracy. The number of matches the team/teams in question have played provides this answer.
For instance, a clubs shots on goal for previous 10 matches or goal difference for the last 15games etc.

Another important clue would be the value we place on each match while trying to gather data for sampling. We will throw more light as we go on.

Gathering Data for football prediction:

With the everyday advancement in football, access to football data is readily available on many sites. Although some punters pay for data analyzing software’s, its ok to start with sites that provide this data for free. With such information at your fingertips, accuracy of football predictions just moved up a notch.

3. Technical ability/skill

This is quite self-explanatory. Your technical ability has an enormous role to play in the accuracy of your predictions. It also determines how often you would be able to identify value bets.

The truth is not every bettor has programming or software skills. But in order to improve efficiency then one would need to at least brush up on spreadsheet. It would be worth the time in the end. You don’t need to become a programmer like Bill Gates but with efficient management of data, there is a huge chance of predicting football profitably.

As earlier mentioned, one of the main characteristics of any betting strategy would be its ability to stay relevant over a given period of time.

We would be talking about Goal expectancy in articles to come. all this information would come in handy in the forthcoming season.