In our previous post we introduced a topic BIAS and we already talked about Ratio Bias. Click here to get up to speed if you missed the previous post.
The English premier league and other leagues kick off in a little less than a months time. To this effect it is important we get our acts right so as to have a fruitful season (bettingwise).
Another kind of cognitive bias ;
Picking The Most Likely Outcome
Mere hearing it you could say most gamblers should not fall for this, but truth is they do. Majority of bettors prefer to bet on the most probable outcome that comes to mind when they look at the fixtures. After all, that is the outcome with a high probability.
Betting on these favorites as we call them does have an effect on the total winnings. A win from a selection with less probability would offer more value which results in a better payout. This is clearly an error made by people who don’t understand maths.
For Instance
lets say the first bet is on Manchester United to win against Huddersfield . In a case where the stake is say N1000 and if you win , you earn N450.
Meanwhile there is also the option of betting on Huddersfield. If you risk N1000, you would be earning N5000.
The red devils could be the favorites but with a little maths you could get the implied odds of the game. It’s also clear that the underdogs selection offers value.
Lets say Huddersfield has a 25% chance of winning. this percentage implies that
Assuming you bet on Manchester united , you earn N450 on 3 of those bets , but you get to lose N1000 on one of those bets. Your net loss would be N650 . You earned N1350 but you lost N1000.
If on the other hand You pick Huddersfield to win. You will lose N3000 on three bets but you will also win N5000 from one of the bets. Hence a N2000 profit.
Haven said this, most people will take the bet on Manchester united even though the expectation is low. A bet on Huddersfield is a really positive bet although involves a lot of risk.
Note; picking bets with a positive outcome (value) over long-term would definitely leave you with profit. While pick favorite consistently during a long-term spell would also lead to loosing money.
It is also worthy of note that just one in every 20 bettors don’t have this bias. You have met some people who get excited by the thought of the underdog winning. These are the people who tend to win whenever the big teams fail. And it is usually a huge payout. Generally it’s already stuck in our heads that large odds represent very difficult wins…
“change that notion TODAY”
In the next article we would look at another Bias which is very common also, stay glued for updates…
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