Bias in Betting ; How It Affects Our Decisions

Bias according to dictionary.com, refers to a strong preconceived opinion about something or someone. It could also be favorable or unfavorable. In this article we would be highlighting some common biases amongst bettors that affect their winning rate.

In other to survive long term in betting, successful punters make the most rational of decisions. Unfortunately majority of gamblers do not think rationally when making decisions concerning their bets. Cognitive bias is the key reason why majority of individuals act irrationally.

“Meaning of Cognitive Bias”?

With reference to my wiki dictionary, the word cognitive simply refers to the part of mental functions relating to logic.

There are different types of cognitive bias and one of them is the “heuristic/strategy based bias”. These are errors resulting from making decisions based on how every other person sees it.

Motivational bias is a very common type of cognitive bias that affects the bettor potential win either negatively or otherwise. Majority but not all of the types of biases about to be listed below are Motivational.
The funny thing about psychology like in the case of cognitive bias is that even when you are aware of them, they are very difficult to overcome.

Studies show that even when an individual is made aware of brainwashing techniques, there is no guarantee that he can make himself immune to such techniques. This is the same phenomenon that cognitive bias operates with.

Ratio Bias

this bias shows the probability of a larger odd selection over a relatively smaller one. Even when the likelihood of the larger one is way better than that of the smaller selection in terms of returns. Although very absurd it is very common amongst bettors.
Majority of bettors lack the knowledge of how to calculate probability even though that is one of the key things to learn before venturing into sports betting.

Probability simply refers the likelihood of a selection to come through. An event thats has 0% probability would never occur while an event with 100% probability will always take place. A good example is a coin toss. Each time a coin is tossed the result is either a head or a tail, each of them have a 50% probability. Only one of the outcomes will occur at a time.

For instance

Lets go back to ratio bias, in a event where we have a bucket with 100 tennis balls in it, and 6 of them are black. The probability of picking a black ball would be 6% i.e (6 divided by 100 X 100%).

Again there’s another bucket containing 20 balls and 4 are black the probability here would be 20%. It is also worthy of note that most bettors would still opt for the bucket with 6%. Even when it is obvious that they have a better chance of winning with the bucket with a lower number of balls in it.

This kind of bias is generally due to the ill knowledge of calculating probability and the resultant bad decisions that follow.

… to be continued