Spain – Croatia: Predictions for the Match of the First Round of the Euro 2024 Group Stage

As Euro 2024 kicks off, bettors are anticipating some exciting fixtures. Among them is Spain vs Croatia, the first group stage fixture of Group B. It’s a game that’ll see two current giants in European football battle it out for the win. 

However, before you wager, it’s ideal to follow the correct forecasts for Euro 2024. Bookmakers explain all the various options available to players in the sports market. That’s what we’ll look at on this page as we analyze these teams to measure their chances of winning. Check out insights and previews from betting experts to make informed decisions!

Team Overviews

Without debate, Spain and Croatia boast world class players. As such, it’s quite challenging to tell which team has the upper hand on paper. Let’s take an overview of both countries to uncover their squad depth and performance as they head into the UEFA Euros.  

Spain 

The Spanish squad may not be as well-rounded as during the golden generation, but there are some impressive talents to watch. Specifically, La Furia Roja will be counting on the likes of Pedri, Ferrari Torres, Rodri, and Morata to help them achieve glory at the Euros. These players have been quite impressive for their club sides this season.

Regarding recent performance, Spain is currently in commendable form. The team has only lost one of their last 5 games, drawing one and winning three. As a result, they go into Euro with 67% form. Across the 5 games, the Spanish side scored 10 goals and conceded 6. However, it’s worth mentioning that there’s a significant variance between the teams the side won, drew, and lost against.

Notably, their wins came against Norway, Cyprus, and Georgia — which are relatively weaker teams. Meanwhile, Spain didn’t record a win against CONMEBOL teams in their previous two fixtures. The first was a 1:0 loss to Columbia, and in the second, they drew 3:3 against Brazil. Thus, while La Furia Roja has been doing well, the team still has some improvements to make, considering the more formidable opponents they’ll face in the Euro, starting with Croatia.

Croatia

In recent international tournaments, Croatia has been putting up impressive performances. The 2020 Euro was the only exception when the team got knocked out in the round of 16. However, they reached the semi-final in the 2022 FIFA World Cup and the final in the 2023 UEFA Nations League. Croatia may not be among the top favourites to win, but the country has what it takes to go for in the Euro tournament. 

Much of their gameplay will revolve around veterans like Ivan Rakitic and Luka Modric. That said, Croatia still has much younger legs like Gvardiol and Brozovic. Looking at recent results, Croatia is in an impressive 80% form, as the side has won four of their last 5 games. Their last loss ended 2:1 to Wales, and since then, the team has won Latvia, Armenia, Tunisia, and Egypt. 

The game against Latvia ended in a straight 2:0 victory, while that of Armenia was 1:0. Meanwhile, Croatia defeated Tunisia 5:4 on penalties and won Egypt 4:2 at full time. Considering their recent impressive form, many believe that Croatia will reach the knockouts. However, Spain stands in their way, besides other teams in Group B. 

Head-to-Head Analysis

When it comes to sports betting forecasts, it’s always ideal to analyze historical matchups. In that regard, there’s a lot to explore for Spain vs Croatia since the two teams have met many times in the past. However, bookmakers focus on their last five games.

Croatia went head-to-head with Spain in the group stage of the 2016 UEFA Euro. The two teams were drawn in Group D, and the game ended 2:1 in favor of Croatia. Next, the countries met in the UEFA Nations League group stage in 2018. It wasn’t really a contest, as Spain dismantled Croatia by winning by 6 goals to nil. It’s the highest win in history for all sides. 

Interestingly, Croatia also took revenge during the 2018 Nations League. In the return fixture, The Blazers defeated La Furia Roja by 3 goals to 2, also recording their biggest win against the Spanish side. These sides won’t meet on the pitch until 2021 in the UEFA Euro knockout stage. It was a quarter-final game, and this time, the scoreline was 4:5, with Spain victorious.

The latest encounter between Spain and Croatia happened in the 2023 UEFA Nations League final. Without question, it’s the biggest game in the history of the two countries. Accordingly, the game was a challenging one, and both teams fought all the way to penalties. After the shootout, Spain won 5:4 to lift the trophy. 

So, across the last five games, Spain has won three times and Croatia twice. Without taking the scoreline into account, it’s safe to say things are balanced between both teams based on the newest head-to-head analysis. This makes the upcoming Euro 2024 fixture even more interesting.

Summary stats:

 

Category Spain Croatia
Wins 4 3
Draws 1 1
Goals Scored 17 11
Goals Conceded 11 17
Average Goals per Match 2.1 1.3
Last 5 Matches 2W, 1D, 2L 2W, 1D, 2L

 

Group Overview

 

Team Qualification Date Previous Best Performance
Spain October 15, 2023 Winners (1964, 2008, 2012)
Croatia November 21, 2023 Quarter-finals (1996, 2008)
Italy November 20, 2023 Winners (1968, 2020)
Albania November 17, 2023 Group Stage (2016)

 

Group B features one of the most exciting games in the Euro 2024 tournament. Besides Spain and Croatia, there’s Italy and Albania, all chasing a spot in the knockouts. There’s no argument that Albania is the weakest in the lineup. As a result, Spain, Croatia, and Italy will be looking to get three points from them. 

The fact that the Spain vs Croatia game is the first in the group makes Group B much more interesting. That’s because any side that wins between the two automatically gets the upper hand. For instance, if Spain wins, they get three points, and if they subsequently win against Albania, that’s six. They don’t have to worry about beating Italy, as six points is enough to make the knockouts. The same goes for Croatia if they defeat Spain. 

However, according to forecasts from experts, Spain and Croatia have to watch out for Italy. The team may not be at their best right now, but they’re the defending champions. So, it’s natural that they’ll want to win Euro 2024 to retain their title. 

Key Matchups

The game between Spain and Croatia will likely be a midfield battle. That’s where these teams’ primary strength lies. Considering their playing style, the two sides prefer passing the ball often while looking for quick spaces to counter and score. This was the case in the 2023 UEFA Nations League final, and it’s one reason the game ended in penalties. 

So, the key matchups will involve the likes of Luka Modric vs Pedri and Rodri va Marcelo Brozovic in the midfield. In a way, it’s a situation of budding talents vs experience, and either can easily come out on top. 

Betting Odds and Expert Opinions

Updated sports betting odds and forecasts from experts pick Spain to win against Croatia when Euro 2024 kicks off. It’s understandable, considering the fact that Spain has the strongest squad on paper. However, some forecasts also indicate that Croatia is being underestimated, and backing the team to win can still be successful. 

For the matchwinner market, here are the latest odds for the fixture as of May 29th:

  • Spain: 1.74
  • Draw: 3.62
  • Croatia: 4.98

The odds indicate Croatia has little to no chance of winning, as their value is almost 3x that of Spain. Probability-wise, Spain has a 55% chance of winning the first Group B game, while it’s only 19% for Croatia. The probability of the game ending in a draw is 26%. 

Besides matchwinner, you’ll find odds for other markets at sports betting sites. If you’re considering them, one of the best options is the over/under market. Based on forecasts by experts, the Spain vs Croatia game will record over 1.5 goals since the two teams will be eager to score. It’s the first game of the group and is unlike the final in 2023, where the two sides were cautious with their offensives. 

Final Words

The Spain vs Croatia fixture proves to be one of the most challenging to predict due to the quality of these teams. Nevertheless, with our detailed analysis on this page, you now know which side has the upper hand. To be straightforward, Spain is expected to defeat Croatia in the upcoming game following forecasts by experts and the latest odds. That said, there’s no ruling out an upset where Croatia takes the win. 

If you consider going for the matchwinner risky, try out other bet types like totals. According to forecasts, over 1.5 total goals is a favorable pick. Ultimately, make sure you stay responsible and bet only with legit sportsbooks as the fixture draws near. The same applies to betting on other matches in the Euro 2024 competition.

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