The over/under 2.5 goals market is one of the most popular betting markets for soccer games. It’s where sportsbooks tend to generate the most liquidity, aside from moneyline betting. Instead of having to decide which team wins a game, over/under 2.5 goals requires you to figure out whether there will be three or more goals. Sounds easy, right? It’s actually not quite as easy to predict and there are various factors you need to keep in mind.
Derbies and cup finals tend to be tense affairs
It’s a good idea to cherry-pick games that are prime candidates for being cagey, where both defences will be on top and controlling the tempo of the game. For example, the recent Madrid derby was heavily tipped to end in a draw, with the statistics showing that five of the last eight meetings between Atletico and Real ending in a stalemate. One option would be to place a wager on under 2.5 goals at the start of the game and see whether it starts in a cagey manner. If it does, you could let the bet run or cash out midway through the game for a percentage of your potential full-time profit.
Consider the football philosophies of managers
Some football managers are well-known for their gung-ho approach to the game, even in the biggest leagues in the world. Take Liverpool’s Jurgen Klopp, for instance, who prefers a high-pressing, high-energy style of football that’s geared towards keeping the game firmly in the opposition’s half. Liverpool’s games are less likely to be under 2.5 goals than games involving sides such as Sean Dyche’s Burnley. Dyche’s philosophy is often safety first, keeping a clean sheet, and attempting to nick a winner at the other end. Free-flowing football and goalmouth action is something most Burnley games lack and are therefore ripe for under 2.5 goals bets.
The importance of Expected Goals (xG)
There is a brand-new statistical model that has revolutionized over/under 2.5 goals betting. The xG model has been in use for the last few years, helping to recognize teams that are creating chances and simply not putting them away and those that are being highly clinical in front of goal. If a team is scoring in plenty of over 2.5 goal games, but their xG is lower, this suggests they have been efficient with their chances of late. However, long term, this is likely to mean they will revert to type. On the other hand, teams with high xG but low goal conversion are creating plenty of chances but haven’t recently been as clinical. These teams are good to keep an eye on, as the goals will eventually flow if the opportunities continue to be created.
The data is at your fingertips to help you make informed betting decisions on over/under 2.5 goals markets. You no longer need to go with your hunch.
Leave a Reply