When you sit in the betting business for some time you are bound to come across the golden rule about how you should not put money in favour of the team or player you like. This good advice is part of a bigger issue about how people perceive the likelihood of events. Emotions are clearly not the same as emotional intelligence, which can be useful in many circumstances, while getting emotional will most definitely impact the quality of your betting abilities. And not in a good way, either.
There are some games involving real money wagering where intuition, or rather abovementioned emotional intelligence and ability to read opponents, plays a big part. Surely, psychological factor is an important element here. Nevertheless, poker hands probability, which could for example show you mathematical value of being suited (having the same colour starting cards), is a good friend of professional players.
This is even more true for real money wagering considering the simple fact that you don’t compete with other people, who may be just as skillful or better than you but still are prone to make mistakes, have tells or streak of bad luck. Instead you go against carefully estimated degrees of probability for sports events, or at the very least pretty accurate predictions regarding the number of people who will bet on each team – in other words: odds.
Letting emotions dictate the course of your betting decisions, alongside persistent chasing losses, is a sure recipe for disaster,especially in the long run. The only time that it is acceptable to place a bet based on intuition, or so-called gut feeling, is for occasional bettors to have a fun way to spend their money.
This way it is not really much different than buying lottery ticket. In the same manner that people often pick lotto number that are significant to them, choosing to put money on the team or event we feel something about seems natural, but it’s not really a good idea. Regardless if it doesn’t seem that similar at the first glance.
Some inexperienced bettors may think that consequently pushing on the big team in major events will be profitable soon enough, or even that this method is a good idea for accumulator wagers. However, each game is different and major team’s performance doesn’t have to reflect the outcome of one event in particular. What is more, accumulator bets are something bookmakers like best and they give them the most profit, as their probability occurrence is very low.
The only method of professional betting that can turn out long-term profit is value betting which relays on careful examinations, analysis and statistics. While perhaps not the easiest approach in the world, it is the correct effort in order to overcome bookmakers house advantage. The general idea is to measure each and every bet by the Expected Value index, the average of outcomes all weighed by their probability, in opposition to considering what we feel about the potential return, which is the go-to-move of great majority of amateur bettors.