What Is Your Betting Bankroll?
Your bankroll is the amount of cash you are willing to both risk and invest in your betting. It is advisable to start with a budget that will allow you see admirable growth in your investment.
We recommend you start with a bankroll of at least 50 units or 100 units depending on your capacity. It might mean a small investment especially if you have up to 1000 units but you isn’t in an hurry. Or are you? Start slow and build gradually. Life is patient.
How Much Should You Bet On Each Bet?
There are lots of investment strategies that will save you lots of money especially in this season that there are lots of scammers online.. These strategies have been applied successfully in the world of gambling.
By the end of this lecture, it is hopeful that the most inexperienced of sports bettors will be able to be familiar with the most popular money management strategies. Also a better understanding of the fundamentals behind money management and how to increase their chances of joining the small percentages of sport bettors that will make long-term profit.
A constant percentage of your bankroll
This strategy maintains a constant percentage of your bankroll with each bet. This method tends to protect any gambler from losing their entire bankroll as the amount diminishes as your bankroll diminishes.
It assumes equal value for each bet and it also equates odds being offered for each bet.
For example, would you want to be betting the same percentage on a 1.50 favorite without recognizing their value? No.
This strategy allows you to be betting 50% of your N10,000 bankroll consistently. As the bankroll reduces, your 50% reduces too. Even if you lose 33 consecutive times, you would still have a bankroll less than N2000.
This strategy does not consider value and making profit over the long term depends on value management. It will only help in managing the way you lose your money.
Taking the Odds into Consideration
This system is like the constant percentage strategy. The difference is that it takes further steps in considering the odds being offered for a particular bet.
For example, you bet 5% of a N10,000 bankroll as a standard unit of N500
If betting on 2 odds, the units remain at N500 but when betting on 11 odds, that units becomes N50
It is calculated; (N10000 *0.05)/ (11-1) =50
It works well on large odds but not on favorites with odds 1.07. If you want to bet on the favorite, you may end up using up your entire bankroll. This strategy does not recognize the value of a betting proposition.
Betting Bankroll Management- The Kelly Criterion
Although it has its own criticism, the Kelly Method has passed its test since its creation. This method takes into consideration the probability of a given player or team winning and the value of the odds offered relative to that probability. This value is called the overlay. This suggests you bet more depending on the greatness of the value but it also means you have to assess the chance of a given outcome with consistency.
Value can be calculated as (% probability multiplied by decimal odds) minus 100%
Different types of Kelly
We will outline the different types of Kelly method
The Full Kelly
The Full Kelly can suggest making risky amounts to bet and can recommend you using 50% of your bankroll to bet which can reduce your bankroll to nothing in a short period of time. On the other hand, it can skyrocket your profits if on a winning streak.
It is calculated by;
Percentage of bankroll to bet = overlay divided by (odds minus 1)
The fractional Kelly
This is a conservative approach to the Full Kelly method. This could be 50% known as the Half Kelly, 25% the Quarter Kelly or any percentage that you are comfortable about.
Though this will reduce your earnings according to the percentage that you choose but it could return profits over a long period of time.
The Constant Kelly
This is the same as the Full Kelly but it recommends a percentage of a constant amount.
So what do we suggest?
We suggest a 10% fractional Kelly method which allows you to protect your all round bankroll while you diversify and place many bets on sports events daily.
So if your bankroll is N5000, and you are betting on a team at odds of 2.50 to win with an assessed winning chance of 50%, the overlay or value is calculated as follows = 50 * 2.50 -100 = 25%
So the recommended bet amount is
(bankroll *chosen fraction) *(value/(odds-1)
ie (N5000*10%) *(25%/1.50)
(N500) *(16.67%) = N83.35
You can try it out yourself. While there are lots of betting strategies to try out in the world, we believe that the fractional Kelly method is the best.2