How To Determine Value Odds

Filed in BETTING ADVICE by on 1 year ago 0 Comments

Obviously, online punters want to concentrate on betting on results that are likely to win, but when selecting your bet, look for value too. This is where the punter is getting an edge on the online bookies.

So, if Chelsea are playing Cardiff at home, gut instinct and the form book tell you that Chelsea are likely to win. Say that you have calculated that there is a 70% chance that Chelsea will win. The calculation should be based on records of their previous meetings.

The odds offered by the bookie are 1.30 on a Chelsea win. So if you bet $10, you will win $13, making a $3 profit.

Is this good value? The way to find out is to look at whether this bet would make you a profit if the match was played 100 times.

You bet expect that Chelsea will win 70 times, so you will make a profit of $3 x 70 = $210.

However, you will lose your stake 30 times = $10 x 30 = $300.

So if this match were played 100 times, at those odds you would be $90 worse off. The odds are poor value.

Look for games that offer better value odds by calculating your percentage likelihood of result and then translating that into the “fair odds”. In the example above, 100 / 70 = 1.42. Any bookie offering more than 1.42 on a Chelsea win is offering value odds and should be considered.

Stay On Luck.

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