BEST HOME/AWAY WIN PREDICTION STRATEGY
This is undoubtedly one of the easiest ways to make your predictions, but probably one of the most effective methods. It is thought that about half of the games in all the leagues end in home wins, another quarter in draws and the rest end in away wins.
Therefore, we can conclude that home advantage is real. Also, when the away team’s form and prowess is way higher than that of the Home team, away wins are likely inevitable.
Here are some of the questions I consider before selecting a home or away win:
1. Is the better team superior in their previous meetings? History is important; some small teams use to be a weak point to some big teams. You need to find out the head to head points between the two teams. Big teams like Real Madrid, Barcelona, Bayern Munich, Manchester City, Chelsea, Liverpool, etc, all have small teams who trouble them whenever they meet. Before I choose any outright win, I must make sure that the better team is also the better team on head to head comparisons from their previous meetings.
2. Is the better team currently on form? My answer must be yes. If they lost their previous match prior to the match you are analyzing, check whether they use to bounce back immediately when they lost a match. From there previous matches in the particular season and if possible, previous seasons, observe if they bounce back with a winning anytime they lost a match. My reason for taking this point into consideration is because, at times luck departs from a good team; they lose two, three, four matches on the go. So, when they lose a match, before I select them to win next match no matter how poor their opponent is, I make sure that they are a team that is consistent in their performance. A team must be on form before I choose them for outright winning, winning at least their last five matches on the troth.
3. Is the better team’s home or away-form formidably good? My answer must be Yes; not somehow. Some teams tend to win almost all their home matches but when the go away, they lose. Check how they perform at home or away from home, it is important to note. Before I choose a team for a home win, I make sure that their football field is always a nightmare to visitors.
4. Is the seemingly weak team currently on form? No is the best answer, because if they’re currently on form, there’s every probability that they can cause havoc (luck is with them at the moment) to the presumed better team. Sunderland beat Man United at old traford and played draw with man city at the ettihad towards the end of 2013 season due to this type of form. When you see a weak team resurrect on form, avoid betting against them for the moment.
5. Is the seemingly poor team good at defense? If yes, thread with maximum caution. In fact, run with your money if possible. Just some weeks back, man city shocked the betting world by losing to stoke. I was just smiling shaa, because in no way will I bet on such match in the first place.
6. Lastly, how important is the match to the better team? If they don’t really need the match, run with your money. That is when you see Bayern Munich losing to inferior teams. When a match is of great importance to a big team, they always give it their all. That is where i always hit them hard on in second leg of cup matches. The recent champions league quarter final match between Real Madrid and Wolfsburg was a prime example.
If the above criterions are met, I bet you’re 99% already a winner.
Important – If you are yet to know how to go about sourcing for stats to analyze your matches, i prepared a step by step tutorial on how to do that.. click here to get it.